Articles - Others - Date: 2022-05-22
Source: Erem News

By: Oraib Al Rantawi

Hezbollah lost the parliamentary majority in the recent elections, but its political opponents did not win it instead. The phase following the May 15th Lebanese parliamentary elections will apparently be more complicated than the phase preceding them. The mosaic that ended up forming the Lebanese parliament makes it difficult for any party to obtain an influential bloc enabling it to face the political and economic challenges and win the race for the sovereign posts. So, little by little, the parties will find themselves compelled to sit at the negotiating and settlement tables.

Lebanon is not governed by any single side. This is an old principle revived by the ballot boxes.

 

True, Hezbollah lost at least ten seats held by its allies in the outgoing parliament and its opponents advanced with a greater number of seats, but a 'reversal' of the scene has not yet occurred.

And true, a large bloc of pro-change activists has joined the parliamentary chorus for the first time, but there is no guarantee that figures who failed to unite during their election campaigns will succeed in joining forces and coordinating their priorities under the dome of parliament.

 

Since the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafiq al-Hariri, Hezbollah's opponents have won the parliamentary majority twice (in 2005 and 2009), but nothing happened on the ground to indicate radical change in either Lebanon's position and alliances or its structure and composition. All the winning side achieved was appointing a president from its camp. Then the 2018 elections secured the majority for Hezbollah and its allies, and Lebanon continued on its path towards collapse, without the president who was appointed after over two years of vacuum managing to free the country and the people from the clutches of major disaster.

 

Today, the picture does not look much different. The first challenge facing the new Lebanese parliament, to elect a speaker, will not reveal any surprises. Among the 27 Shiite deputies in parliament, all from the Hezbollah/Amal bloc, none will step forward to compete with Nabih Berri for the position of speaker, and attempts to 'topple' the speaker will be in vain. The only possible outcome is for Nabih Berri to be re-elected with a smaller number of votes.

 

The next challenge, to appoint a PM, will be a long and bitter process, with ups and downs. On other occasions, the formation of a new Lebanese government took a year or more, only for the gauntlet to end with national 'accord' governments swiftly felled by the street if not overthrown by the obstructive one-third [since major government decisions require a two-thirds majority]. The specter of the failure to form a new Iraqi government after last October's elections hangs over Lebanon, and today there is more than one Lebanese political bloc that commands more than the obstructive one-third in the new parliament.

 

'Accord' is the key word of the coming phase, assuming the Lebanese manage to establish a new government that transcends caretaker duties and faces the challenge of stopping the collapse, implementing a financial and economic recovery plan, salvaging the Lebanese lira, demarcating maritime borders, and investing in Lebanon's oil and gas wealth. For its part, the battle for the presidency is the only arena that will test the new balance of power. Hezbollah's opponents succeeded in blocking the path of its allies Gibran Bassil and Suleiman Franjieh to power, but they will not be able to bring a president from their own ranks to Baabda Palace.

 

The heated Byzantine debate over who controls the largest Christian bloc will lead nowhere, and the next president of Lebanon will be one of the following two options: Vacuum, or a consensual president from outside the list of major contenders. As always, Lebanon awaits the developments of the surrounding region to determine its next course of action. The delicate balances produced by the elections may spur the major players in the region to facilitate consensual formulas. The Syrian/Saudi equation that has governed Lebanon for over ten years may be replaced by a Saudi/Iranian equation if the upcoming rounds of Saudi/Iranian talks are destined to make a breakthrough, and if white smoke rises from the chimney of the Vienna negotiations.