Articles > > Superstition or Gamble

Articles - Addostour - Date: 2020-05-11
By: Oraib Al Rantawi

Today's analysis may appear as a bout of superstition or a gamble, or even an attempt to derive major meaning and connotations from minor events and developments that do not warrant it.
 
Nevertheless, it is worth venturing into analytical forays and unleashing speculation and predictions.
 
According to reports leaked by the Israeli press and corroborated by Western media, Iran began withdrawing Revolutionary Guards units stationed in Syria, and almost simultaneously, the U.S. began withdrawing its Patriot missile batteries from Saudi Arabia, returned swarms of bombers stationed there to backup bases, and declared it that it is pulling back on its naval deployment in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf. Iran has yet to acknowledge its sudden Syrian move, and Washington says it no longer poses a threat to U.S., Israeli, or Saudi security so as to explain its forces' withdrawal from Saudi Arabia.
 
On another front, sources report that a Tehran-Washington prisoner exchange is finally in the works. Iranian government spokesperson Ali Rabiei has expressed that his country is prepared to conduct a full prisoner exchange with the U.S. without the need for third country mediation (sic).
 
Iran has detained four Americans, mostly on espionage charges, while the U.S. has detained 24 Iranians on charges related to espionage and sanctions breaches. The prisoners include former U.S. Navy veteran Michael White and Iranian university professor Sirous Asgari. The two countries completed a prisoner exchange deal last year, where Tehran released American student Xiyue Wang, who was imprisoned for three years on espionage charges, in exchange for Washington releasing Iranian stem cell researcher Masoud Soleimani, who was accused of violating the sanctions imposed on Tehran.
 
On yet another front, Iraq has overcome its government ordeal after more than six months of vacuum. Journalist and intelligence official Mustafa al-Kazemi successfully formed a cabinet amid immediate Iranian and U.S. congratulations, although he is nearer to Washington than to Tehran. Notably, the first ambassadors he received in his office in the Green Zone after receiving the vote of confidence were the U.S. and Iranian ambassadors. The U.S./Iranian settlement that facilitated the new Iraqi government's formation under PM Kazemi reflects a common desire to avoid escalation and may be a precursor to what comes next.
 
 
As these developments take place, Iranian social media and Western media struggle to parse the significance of Iranian supreme leader Imam Ali Khamenei' Tweet a few days ago in which he called [revered 7th century Shiite Caliph and the Prophet Mohammad's grandson] Imam Hassan ibn Ali Abi Talib's peace treaty with [Umayyad Caliph] Mu'awiyah bin Abi Sufyan an embodiment of the expression 'heroic resilience', which is the same thing that he Tweeted before Iran commenced negotiations with the 5 + 1 group on its nuclear program and before it was taken off the table after Trump's arrival at the White House. Does the supreme leader's Tweet portend a green light for an upcoming development?
 
If these developments are not a sign of a major breakthrough between the two parties such as resuming negotiations under any formula or umbrella, then they are, at the very least, an indication of their desire to avoid new waves of escalation, especially on the part of Iran, which appears exhausted by the U.S. sanctions, the collapse in oil prices, and the coronavirus pandemic's fallout.
 
 
Meanwhile, the U.S. is suffering the worst economic crisis in ninety years that is still in its most dangerous chapters due to the high number of infections and deaths, and spikes in layoffs reaching the tens of millions, which is sure to curb its appetite for a military gamble for the foreseeable future.